What is EMP?
An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is a super-energetic radio wave that can destroy, damage or cause the malfunction of electronic systems by overloading their circuits. An EMP is harmless to people biologically, passing through their bodies without injury, like a radio wave.
But by damaging the electronic systems that make modern society possible, an EMP can cause mass destruction of property and life.
A single nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude over any country, or say, central Europe, will generate an electromagnetic pulse that can cause catastrophic damage across a radius of 2,000 to 3,000 kilometers to the critical infrastructure – electric power, telecommunications, transportation, banking and finance, food and water – that sustains modern civilization and the lives of millions of citizens.
Because an EMP attack requires the detonation of a nuclear warhead at high altitude, no other nuclear effects – such as blast, thermal radiation or radioactive fallout – would be experienced by people on the ground.
However, because modern civilization and life now depend upon electricity and electronics, an EMP attack is a high-tech means of killing millions of people the old-fashioned way – through starvation, disease and societal collapse.
Official sources estimate that if a high altitude EMP device was exploded over the United States, up to 200 million people would perish within 12 months.[i] An EMP attack would send America back to the pre-industrial age – no electricity, no running water, no transport, no banking and finance, no credit cards, and after a few days – no food.[ii]
The threat of societal breakdown
If governments lose the ability to maintain order, civil society would quickly break down.
Sadly, in modern times, it doesn’t take much to trigger societal breakdown.
A small taste of societal collapse occurred when lightning caused a power blackout in New York on July 13, 1977.
TIME Magazine described New York’s blackout in 1977 as a “Night of Terror.” Widespread chaos reigned in the city until power was restored – entire blocks were looted and set ablaze, people flipped over cars and vans on the streets; the city was in pandemonium. That night, 3,776 arrests were made, and certainly not all looters, thieves and arsonists were apprehended or arrested.[iii]
On streets like Brooklyn’s Broadway, the rumble of iron store gates being forced up and the shattering of glass preceded scenes of couches, televisions and heaps of clothing being paraded through the streets by looters, at once defiant, furtive and gleeful. Thirty-five blocks of Broadway were destroyed, and 134 stores were looted with 45 of them set ablaze.
Power was restored the next day.
Imagine if the power was out for one month or one year.
2011 London riots
Another example of societal breakdown occurred in England between August 6 and 11, 2011. Thousands of people rioted in several London boroughs and in cities and towns across England. The resulting chaos generated looting and arson, leading to the mass deployment of police and the death of five people.
Disturbances began on August 6 after a protest in Tottenham, London, following the death of Mark Duggan, a local black youth who had been shot dead by police on August 4. Several violent clashes with police ensued, along with the destruction of police vehicles, a double-decker bus, and many homes and businesses, thus rapidly gaining attention from the media.
Overnight, looting took place in Tottenham Hale Retail Park and nearby Wood Green. The following days saw similar scenes in other parts of London, with rioting taking place in Hackney, Brixton, Walthamstow, Peckham, Enfield, Battersea, Croydon, Ealing, Barking, Woolwich, Lewisham and East Ham.
From August 8 to 10, other towns and cities in England (including Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester, Derby, Wolverhampton, Nottingham, West Bromwich, Bristol, Liverpool, Manchester, and Salford) saw what the media described as “copycat violence.”
Vehicles, homes, and shops were attacked and set alight. At least 100 homes were destroyed in the arson and looting. Shopkeepers estimated the damages in their Tottenham Hale and Tottenham branches at several million pounds.
The riots also caused the irretrievable loss of heritage architecture. It was estimated that retailers lost at least 30,000 trading hours. The Association of British Insurers said they expect the industry to pay out in excess of £200 million.
By August 15, more than 3,000 arrests had been made across England, with more than 1,000 people issued with criminal charges for various offenses related to the riots. Initially, courts sat for extended hours.
There were a total of 3,443 crimes across London linked to the disorder. Along with the five deaths, at least 16 other people suffered injuries as a direct result of related violent acts. An estimated £200 million worth of property damage was incurred, and local economic activity was significantly compromised.[iv]
Is this science-fiction stuff or is it a real threat?
In the U.S. an official consensus exists about the EMP threat assessment above. Two Congressional commissions, the National Academy of Sciences and two other U.S. government-sponsored major studies have all independently examined the threat and arrived at the same conclusion – that an EMP is a potentially catastrophic threat that demands high priority be given to preparedness.
Much of the information in this book was derived from the findings of a congressionally mandated EMP commission in the United States, which ran from 2002 to 2008.[v]
No lesser a figure than the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich, has warned of the extreme consequences of an EMP attack. In a speech delivered at the National Defense University, Washington, DC, on December 14, 2016, Gingrich declared that:
… [E]lectromagnetic pulse is the largest, single threat to our civilization. It’s absurd how little we spend on coping with it, because if you harden enough, it’s not a threat; but if you don’t harden enough, and we get hit with an electromagnetic pulse, your civilization collapses.[vi]
How would you know if an EMP attack had occurred?
You could be driving your automobile and it suddenly stops and refuses to re-start. You get out your mobile phone to call for help but notice there is no signal. You begin walking home and notice other vehicles stalled along the road. You finally reach home to find it blacked out – no lights, no TV and the refrigerator not working.
You then discover there is no running water and, after the first flush, the toilet does not refill. Even though you have solar panels on the roof, you discover that when the grid goes down the solar system automatically switches off. You switch on a battery-powered radio to hear a government message exhorting you to stay calm and that the power will be restored as soon as possible.
The truth is, power may not be restored for months or even years.
Among the vulnerabilities of the electricity grid are devices known as extra high voltage (EHV) transformers that send electricity over long distances. These devices can be as large as a house and weigh hundreds of tonnes. Many EHV transformers would probably burn out in an EMP attack. Even a few failures would cause catastrophic cascading effects on the electricity system. They are only manufactured in a few places in the world and must be custom-built. Worldwide production capacity is less than 100 units per year and serves a world market, one that is growing at a rapid rate in countries such as China and India. Delivery time of a new transformer ordered today is nearly three years, including both manufacturing and transportation. An event damaging several of these transformers at once means it may well extend delivery times well beyond current rates.
Another key vulnerability is the widespread use of robots of the modern age known as Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. SCADAs are essentially small computers, numbering in the hundreds of thousands, ubiquitous in the critical infrastructure that performs jobs previously completed by hundreds of thousands of human technicians during the 1960s and earlier. They find extensive use in critical infrastructure applications such as electrical transmissions and distribution, water management, and oil and gas pipelines. Because they are sensitive electronic devices, SCADAs are especially vulnerable to an EMP.
Who has EMP weapons?
The United States EMP Commission found that Russia, and most probably China and North Korea, are already in possession of such weapons. The EMP Commission also found, contrary to the claim that high-yield nuclear weapons are necessary for an EMP attack, that in fact very low-yield nuclear weapons of special design can produce significantly more EMP than high-yield nuclear weapons. Russian writings call these “Super-EMP” nuclear weapons.
Yet a Super-EMP warhead could have a tiny explosive yield, perhaps only a few kilotons, because it is specially designed to produce primarily gamma rays that generate the electromagnetic shock wave.
In 2004, credible Russian sources warned the EMP Commission that design information and a “brain drain” from Russia had transferred to North Korea the capability to build a Super-EMP nuclear weapon “within a few years.” In 2006, 2008 and again in 2016, North Korea tested a nuclear device of very low yield and declared these tests successful. Just after the 2016 test, North Korea tested a long-range missile capable of delivering a Super-EMP warhead.
North Korea’s proclivity to sell missiles and nuclear technology to fellow rogue nations, Iran and Syria, makes their possession of Super-EMP nuclear weapons especially worrisome. Further, Islamic State boasted in 2015 that it expects to have a nuclear weapon “within a year.”[vii]
Who would launch an EMP attack?
North Korea’s KN-11 submarine-launched ballistic missile
North Korea, Iran and the Islamic State each have an implacable hatred of the United States. Either one or perhaps more than one, in combination, would have the motivation and capability to launch an EMP attack.
The attack could be launched via a North Korean long-range missile. However, the Americans could trace the source of such an attack and carry out retaliation.
A more likely scenario is for an attack using a short-range missile launched from a freighter off the coast of California or New York. Any missile, including short-range missiles, that can deliver a nuclear warhead to an altitude of 40 kilometers or more, can make a catastrophic EMP attack on a target country, by launching from a ship or freighter. Iran has practiced ship-launched EMP attacks using Scud missiles – missiles that are possessed by scores of nations and even terrorist groups.
An EMP attack launched off a ship with a Scud, and a warhead detonated at high altitude would leave no bomb debris for forensic analysis, enabling rogue states or terrorists to destroy critical infrastructure and kill millions of Americans anonymously.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un
The EMP threat from North Korea entered new and even more dangerous territory in April 2017 when North Korea’s psychopathic dictator, Kim Jon-un threatened all-out nuclear war against the United States if it dared attack his nuclear facilities. The media and U.S. authorities dismissed Kim’s threat as just saber-rattling by a deranged fool.
The United States and indeed the Western world, dismiss Kim’s threats at their peril.
On February 7, 2016, North Korea launched a second satellite, the KMS-4, to join their KMS-3 satellite launched in December of 2012. In an article in the Washington Times on April 24, 2016, R. James Woolsey, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Peter Vincent Fry, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security as well as director of the Nuclear Strategy Forum, both congressional advisory boards, warned of the dangers of an apocalyptic EMP attack that these and similar satellites pose:
Both satellites now are in south polar orbits, evading many U.S. missile defense radars and flying over the United States from the south, where our defenses are limited. Both satellites – if nuclear-armed – could make an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack that could blackout the U.S. electric grid for months or years, thereby killing millions.
Technologically, such an EMP attack is easy – since the weapon detonates at high-altitude, in space, no shock absorbers, heat shield, or vehicle for atmospheric re-entry is necessary. Since the radius of the EMP is enormous, thousands of kilometers, accuracy matters little. Almost any nuclear weapon will do.
Moreover, North Korea probably has nuclear weapons specially designed, not to make a big explosion, but to emit lots of gamma rays to generate high-frequency EMP. Senior Russian generals warned EMP Commissioners in 2004 that their EMP nuclear warhead design leaked “accidentally” to North Korea, and unemployed Russian scientists found work in North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.[viii]
With North Korea’s launch of a missile on July 4, 2017, which Western analysts conceded was an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching North America, the threat to the West stepped up another notch.
The apocalyptic image of an America gone dark, an America suddenly transported from an era of iPads to an era of horse-and-buggy travel, is not science fiction but a very real possibility.
Following such a devastating attack, the U.S. will be finished as the world’s policeman, the superpower protecting Western countries. Its military will be fully engaged in trying to restore order and helping prevent millions of deaths from starvation, lack of water supplies, medicines, and essential services. But with its economy in ruins, the government would soon run out of money to finance its military. Although some military bases have been “hardened” against EMP attack, the bulk of the military forces would soon be in the same position as the rest of the population – no food, water, medicine or essential services.
Even if some food, water or medicine were available, unless you carried cash or gold, you would not be able to purchase it. ATMs and credit cards would be inoperative.
It is no surprise China is sitting back. It will let the deranged Kim do the dirty work, then step up to become the world’s hegemon. Without American protection, countries such as Australia, which China sees as a food bowl and source of minerals, would be tempting targets.
New information about the launch of a Chinese satellite in January 2016 suggests that China may be capable of launching a super-EMP weapon into space where it could circle the earth, posing an existential threat to the United States, or any country it considers hostile. Such a weapon could be triggered while over U.S. territory. It could be exploded in situ, releasing its deadly EMP gamma rays to wreak unimaginable damage upon North America.
Cheap and simple alternatives to an EMP attack
Another likely scenario is for jihadists to carry out co-ordinated attacks on one of the greatest vulnerabilities of advanced Western nations, the extra high voltage (EHV) transformers which are so vital to electricity transmission.
A co-ordinated attack by jihadists using shoulder-mounted missile-launchers, such as rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), could disable multiple EHV transformers, thus causing cascading catastrophic failure of entire electricity distribution systems.
Another possible scenario is for the jihadists to mount one or more suicide attacks on electricity-generating facilities. A grenade thrown into a rotating generator could unbalance it and disable it for a considerable period.
[i] R. James Woolsey and Peter Vincent Pry, “The growing threat from an EMP attack”, Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2014 [paywall-protected article].
URL: www.wsj.com/articles/james-woolsey-and-peter-vincent-pry-the-growing-threat-from-an-emp-attack-1407885281
[ii] EMP Commission, Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Volume 1: Executive Report (Washington, DC: 2004), pp. 1-3.
Dr William R. Graham, Testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, July 10, 2008.
[iii] “The blackout: night of terror”, Time (New York), July 25, 1977.
URL: http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,919089-2,00.html
[iv] “Statistical bulletin on the public disorder of 6th to 9th August 2011 – February 2012 update”, Ministry of Justice (UK Government), February 23, 2012.
URL: https://web.archive.org/web/20170222112708/https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/217805/august-public-disorder-stats-bulletin-230212.pdf
[v] EMP Commission, Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures (Washington, DC), April 2008.
URL: www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf
[vi] Newt Gingrich, “Trumpism in national security and foreign policy explained”, Nevada News and Views (Citizen Outreach Foundation, Las Vegas), January 2, 2017.
URL: http://nevadanewsandviews.com/gingrich-trumpism-in-national-security-foreign-policy-explained/
See also William R. Forstchen’s apocalyptic thriller, One Second After (New York: Forge Books, 2009), with an introduction by Newt Gingrich. Forstchen is a professor of military history and technology from North Carolina. His novel, which realistically depicts the potential damage rendered by an EMP attack on the continental United States, was cited on the floor of Congress and before the House Armed Services Committee by Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (Republican, Maryland, 1993-2013), when he was chairman of the House Committee tasked to evaluate EMP weapons.
[vii] Graham testimony, July 10, 2008, op. cit.
Peter Vincent Pry, “Nuclear terrorism and EMP attack”, U.S. Congressional EMP Commission staff briefing, 2012.
[viii] R. James Woolsey and Peter Vincent Pry, “The miniaturization myth: Obama and ‘experts’ wrongly measure North Korea’s nuclear intentions”, Washington Times, April 24, 2016.
URL: www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/24/r-james-woolsey-peter-vincent-pry-obama-wrong-on-n/